Weather Graphics

<div class="css-175oi2r r-1s2bzr4" style="align-items: stretch; background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-color: black; border-image: initial; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 12px 0px 0px; min-height: 0px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; z-index: 0; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; font-size: 15px; white-space: normal;"><div dir="auto" lang="en" class="css-146c3p1 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-37j5jr r-1inkyih r-16dba41 r-bnwqim r-135wba7" id="id__hveuu5n4ccn" data-testid="tweetText" style="background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); border-color: black; border-image: initial; color: rgb(231, 233, 234); display: inline; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-language-override: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 17px; line-height: 24px; font-family: TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-align: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap; overflow-wrap: break-word; min-width: 0px;"><div class="css-175oi2r r-1s2bzr4" style="align-items: stretch; border-color: black; border-image: initial; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 12px 0px 0px; min-height: 0px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; z-index: 0; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; font-size: 15px; white-space: normal;"><div dir="auto" lang="en" class="css-146c3p1 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-37j5jr r-1inkyih r-16dba41 r-bnwqim r-135wba7" id="id__hveuu5n4ccn" data-testid="tweetText" style="background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); border-color: black; border-image: initial; color: rgb(231, 233, 234); display: inline; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-language-override: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 17px; line-height: 24px; font-family: TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-align: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap; overflow-wrap: break-word; min-width: 0px;"><span class="css-1jxf684 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-poiln3" style="background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); border-color: black; border-image: initial; color: inherit; display: inline; font: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-align: inherit; white-space: inherit; overflow-wrap: break-word; min-width: 0px;">I have added a Marginal and Slight Risk into Southern Wales and parts of South-West England as Risk of Thunderstorms has risen in the over night models, also I moved the Low risk in Northern England more south, which now covers Northern Wales, The conditional Severe Risk is still place.</span></div></div><div aria-labelledby="id__ddpe68d27vv id__ivtkxpq2apa" class="css-175oi2r r-9aw3ui r-1s2bzr4" id="id__0l6nro43o45" style="align-items: stretch; border-color: black; border-image: initial; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 12px 0px 0px; min-height: 0px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; z-index: 0; gap: 4px; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; font-size: 15px; white-space: normal;"><div class="css-175oi2r r-9aw3ui" style="align-items: stretch; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); border-color: black; border-image: initial; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 0px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; z-index: 0; gap: 4px;"><div class="css-175oi2r" style="align-items: stretch; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); border-color: black; border-image: initial; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 0px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; z-index: 0;"><div class="css-175oi2r r-k200y" style="align-items: stretch; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); border-color: black; border-image: initial; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 0px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; z-index: 0; align-self: flex-start; max-width: 441.046px;"><div class="css-175oi2r r-1kqtdi0 r-1phboty r-rs99b7 r-1867qdf r-1udh08x r-o7ynqc r-6416eg r-1ny4l3l" style="align-items: stretch; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); border-width: 1px; border-color: rgb(47, 51, 54); border-image: initial; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 0px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; z-index: 0; border-radius: 16px; overflow: hidden; outline-style: none; transition-property: background-color, box-shadow; transition-duration: 0.2s;"><div class="css-175oi2r" style="align-items: stretch; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); border-color: black; border-image: initial; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 0px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; z-index: 0;"><div class="css-175oi2r r-16y2uox r-1pi2tsx r-13qz1uu" style="align-items: stretch; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); border-color: black; border-image: initial; display: flex; flex: 1 0 auto; flex-direction: column; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 0px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; z-index: 0; width: 439.031px; height: 510px;"><a href="https://x.com/MyWeatherUK/status/2068951025407381686/photo/1" role="link" class="css-175oi2r r-1pi2tsx r-1ny4l3l r-1loqt21" style="align-items: stretch; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); border-color: black; border-image: initial; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 0px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-decoration: none; z-index: 0; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; height: 510px;"><div class="css-175oi2r r-1adg3ll r-1udh08x" style="align-items: stretch; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); border-color: black; border-image: initial; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 0px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; z-index: 0; overflow: hidden; width: 441.046px; height: 510px;"></div></a></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div aria-labelledby="id__ddpe68d27vv id__ivtkxpq2apa" class="css-175oi2r r-9aw3ui r-1s2bzr4" id="id__0l6nro43o45" style="align-items: stretch; background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-color: black; border-image: initial; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 12px 0px 0px; min-height: 0px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; z-index: 0; gap: 4px; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; font-size: 15px; white-space: normal;"><div class="css-175oi2r r-9aw3ui" style="align-items: stretch; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); border-color: black; border-image: initial; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 0px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; z-index: 0; gap: 4px;"><div class="css-175oi2r" style="align-items: stretch; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); border-color: black; border-image: initial; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 0px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; z-index: 0;"><div class="css-175oi2r r-k200y" style="align-items: stretch; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); border-color: black; border-image: initial; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 0px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; z-index: 0; align-self: flex-start; max-width: 441.046px;"><div class="css-175oi2r r-1kqtdi0 r-1phboty r-rs99b7 r-1867qdf r-1udh08x r-o7ynqc r-6416eg r-1ny4l3l" style="align-items: stretch; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); border-width: 1px; border-color: rgb(47, 51, 54); border-image: initial; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 0px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; z-index: 0; border-radius: 16px; overflow: hidden; outline-style: none; transition-property: background-color, box-shadow; transition-duration: 0.2s;"><div class="css-175oi2r" style="align-items: stretch; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); border-color: black; border-image: initial; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 0px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; z-index: 0;"></div></div></div></div></div></div>

Jun 22, 2026 · 6:12 PM

<span style="color: rgb(231, 233, 234); font-family: TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">As we move into the early afternoon of the first day of the potentially historic heatwave, strong surface heating and high humidity, accompanied by moderate to high CAPE values, will provide ample fuel for possible thunderstorm development. However, despite the main ingredients being present, the trigger for storm development remains highly conditional. The development of storms will depend on whether a shortwave disturbance and associated lift from a cut-off low in the Atlantic arrive in time and whether the cap aloft can be broken. If neither of these factors materialises, or if they are delayed by just a couple of hours, the thunderstorm risk may be greatly reduced. However, if these two major factors come together at the right time, thunderstorms could develop more widely across parts of Central and Northern England and southern Wales. Should the environment evolve favourably, some storms within the Conditional Severe Area (grey dashed line) could become severe. Potential hazards include flash flooding, large hail and a high lightning risk. </span><span class="r-b88u0q" style="font-weight: 700; color: rgb(231, 233, 234); font-family: TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Note: </span><span style="color: rgb(231, 233, 234); font-family: TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">This is a very conditional setup, with confidence remaining relatively low. A small change in timing or atmospheric conditions could mean the difference between widespread thunderstorm development and very little activity.</span>

Jun 21, 2026 · 9:16 PM

<p data-start="1170" data-end="1501"><font color="#ef4444">Low-End</font> thunderstorm potential across the UK. A <font color="#10b981">few isolated thundery</font> showers may develop during peak afternoon <font color="#f97316">heating</font>, mainly across southern/eastern England. Most areas remain <font color="#f43f5e">dry </font>with little to no thunderstorm activity expected. Any storms that form should be brief, with severe weather <font color="#f59e0b">unlikely.</font></p> <p data-start="1503" data-end="1538"></p>

Jun 14, 2026 · 5:25 PM

For Tuesday 19 May, the convective outlook for UK &amp; Ireland indicates a <font color="#f97316">Slight</font> thunderstorm risk <font color="#f97316">(score: 39/100)</font>. Modest instability is expected <font color="#f97316">(CAPE ~400 J/kg)</font>, sufficient for isolated convective initiation in the most favourable locations. Wind shear is weak — convection will be predominantly single-cell pulse storms with brief lifespans. Primary hazards today include hail to <font color="#3b82f6">27mm</font> and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. The greatest threat is focused across <font color="#5eead4">Sheffield, Bristol, Nottingham and York</font>, with approximately 82% areal coverage. Confidence is<font color="#22c55e"> low</font>-to-<font color="#dc2626">moderate</font> at this lead time — local variability is likely. Timing: convective initiation is most likely during the afternoon and early evening hours (peak heating phase, typically 13–19 local), with storms decaying overnight as the boundary layer stabilises. Confidence: moderate — short-range guidance is well-aligned for today.

May 19, 2026 · 6:43 AM

A warm, increasingly humid airmass will overspread much of central and southern England through tomorrow, with strong April sunshine allowing temperatures to climb and instability to build steadily into the afternoon. Latest Models from<font color="#14b8a6"> UKV, AROME, UKMO and ECMWF</font> points toward a classic pulse-convection setup, where scattered showers develop before locally intensifying into thunderstorms. The key driver looks to be surface-based instability (<font color="#f59e0b">moderate CAPE</font>) combined with light winds, allowing storms to form along subtle convergence zones, sea-breeze boundaries and local surface contrasts. Moisture levels appear sufficient for efficient rainfall processes, while relatively weak wind shear suggests storms will remain mostly <font color="#d946ef">disorganised</font> — but slow-moving and capable of producing intense impacts in small areas. High-resolution models (<font color="#14b8a6">UKV / AROME</font>) indicate a corridor across parts of the Midlands into the <font color="#5eead4">South East</font> where storm initiation is most favoured, with potential for brief clustering where boundaries interact. <font color="#14b8a6">ECMWF</font> supports the broader environment but keeps activity scattered rather than widespread.

Apr 26, 2026 · 6:31 PM

A more refined convective signal is evident for tomorrow, with <font color="#22c55e">high-resolution</font> models aligning on a focused corridor of thunderstorm risk rather than widespread activity. The overall setup remains driven by a weak Atlantic trough interacting with a modestly unstable airmass, but mesoscale features will play a key role in determining where storms become most active. <font color="#f97316">🌡️ SYNOPTIC &amp; MESOSCALE SETUP: </font> A plume of moist, conditionally unstable air continues to push northeastwards, with CAPE values generally<font color="#ef4444"> 300–700 J/kg</font>, locally higher where surface heating is maximised. At the same time, subtle low-level convergence zones and weak shear profiles (<font color="#fbbf24">~15–25 knots</font>) suggest a predominantly pulse to loosely organised <font color="#dc2626">multicell</font> regime. Models such as <font color="#14b8a6">AROME and UKV </font>continue to highlight localized forcing zones, particularly across western and central Britain, where topography and boundary interactions will enhance lift. <font color="#ec4899">⛈️ STORM EVOLUTION:</font> Late Morning to Early Afternoon (<font color="#6366f1">11:00–15:00</font>): Initial convective development across parts of <font color="#d946ef">Wales, the Midlands, and northern England.</font> Activity likely scattered at first, with rapid vertical development where sunshine breaks occur. Lightning risk begins to increase, particularly in western upland areas. Peak Window (<font color="#6366f1">15:00–19:00</font>): A more concentrated zone of storms is expected to emerge across northern England into southern Scotland, where convergence appears strongest. AROME and UKV both indicate a core zone of enhanced lightning probability, with storms becoming more electrically active here. Additional isolated storms may develop further south across central and southern England, though these look more sporadic. Evening (<font color="#8b5cf6">19:00–00:00</font>): Activity gradually shifts northwards and weakens, though residual thunderstorms may persist into southern Scotland. Decay expected as instability diminishes post-sunset. <font color="#facc15">⚠️ PRIMARY HAZARDS</font> Frequent Lightning: Especially within the northern England–southern Scotland corridor where storm clustering is most likely. <font color="#3b82f6">Torrential Rainfall</font>: Localised totals of <font color="#6366f1">15–25mm</font> possible in under an hour, leading to surface water flooding. Gusty Winds: Downburst potential with gusts <font color="#5eead4">30–50 mph</font> in stronger cells. Hail: Generally small, but locally moderate hail cannot be ruled out in the most vigorous updraughts. <font color="#d6c39a">📍 REGIONAL DETAIL</font> Ireland: Lower overall risk compared to earlier runs — mainly scattered showers with only isolated thunder potential. Wales &amp; Midlands: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms, hit-and-miss but capable of brief intensity. Northern England: Primary risk zone — greatest chance of organised convection and frequent lightning. Southern Scotland: Increasing risk into late afternoon and evening as storms migrate north. Southern England: Lower-end risk — isolated, short-lived storms possible but many areas may stay dry. 📊 MODEL AGREEMENT AROME: Strongest signal for a defined lightning corridor over northern England. UKV: Supports similar placement with slightly broader but less intense coverage. ARPEGE: Indicates more fragmented convection further south, aligning with lower-end risk there. UKMO Global: Captures the overall setup but smooths out key convective details. 🧠 CONFIDENCE Moderate (65%) – Good agreement on where storms are most likely, but exact placement will depend on small-scale boundaries and cloud cover evolution. 📣 SUMMARY A targeted convective day rather than widespread thunderstorms. The greatest concern lies from northern England into southern Scotland, where storms could become more active and produce frequent lightning and intense downpours. Elsewhere, expect scattered, hit-and-miss storms, with many areas avoiding impacts altogether.

Apr 14, 2026 · 7:10 PM