Multi-Model Ensemble
TCM Grid
96h

Weather Pattern Scenarios

Live TCM model run analysis from RiskGridCache — Open-Meteo multi-model ensemble data. CAPE, temperature, precipitation, and shear parameters out to 96 hours.

Peak CAPE

0J/kg

Max Shear 0–6km

0m/s

Max Precip Prob

0%

Ensemble Spread

0J/kg

Temp Range

13–16°C

CAPE Ensemble Spread

21-member multi-model ensemble · 3-hourly · IQR ribbon & control mean

D1 12ZD1 06ZD2 00ZD3 18ZD4 12ZD4 06Z0 J/kg1 J/kg2 J/kg3 J/kg4 J/kg

Temperature Trend

GFS · ECMWF · UKMO · 6-hourly surface analysis

D1 12ZD2 12ZD3 12ZD4 12Z10.5°C12.5°C14.5°C18°C
  • GFS
  • ECMWF
  • UKMO

Precipitation Probability

3-hourly ensembles · probability of ≥0.5 mm/h · intensity overlay

D1 12ZD2 12ZD3 12ZD4 12Z0%25%50%75%100%0mm/h0.5mm/h1mm/h1.5mm/h2mm/h

Wind Shear & Helicity

0–6 km & 0–1 km bulk shear · Storm Relative Helicity 0–3 km

D1 12ZD2 12ZD3 12ZD4 12Z0 m/s1 m/s2 m/s3 m/s4 m/s0 m²/s²1 m²/s²2 m²/s²3 m²/s²4 m²/s²
  • 0–6 km Shear
  • 0–1 km Shear
  • SRH 0–3 km

Ensemble Uncertainty

CAPE inter-quartile range across members · wider = lower confidence

D1 12ZD1 06ZD2 00ZD3 18ZD4 12ZD4 06Z0 J/kg1 J/kg2 J/kg3 J/kg4 J/kg

TCM ensemble data from multi-model run · 29 Aug, 12:03 UTC

Charts use live TCM model data from Open-Meteo ensemble via GFS, ECMWF, UKMO & AI-IFS members. No synthetic data is used.

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